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VOL. 10, ISSUE 9 (2025)
Trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall variability at Lucknow (U.P) (1979-2016) using non-parametric tests
Authors
Vinod Kumar, Vachin Kumar, Permod Kumar, Shweta Tyagi
Abstract
Temperature and rainfall
are key climatic drivers of crop productivity in the rice–wheat and
sugarcane-based cropping systems of Central Uttar Pradesh. This study examined
long-term (1979–2016) annual and seasonal variability and trends in maximum
temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), diurnal temperature range
(TRAN), mean temperature (Tmean), and rainfall at Lucknow using descriptive
statistics and non-parametric tests. Daily weather data from the
Agrometeorological Observatory, IISR, Lucknow were analyzed for inter-annual
variability (mean, SD, CV, skewness, kurtosis) and trend detection using the
Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Pettitt's change-point test. TMAX
showed high stability (CV = 1.86%) with a non-significant decreasing trend
(−0.130°C decade⁻¹), while TMIN exhibited a significant increasing trend
(+0.188°C decade⁻¹, p = 0.011), driven by high-frequency warm-night events
after 2005. Consequently, TRAN declined significantly (−0.238°C decade⁻¹, p
< 0.01), and Tmean showed a non-significant warming trend (+0.140°C
decade⁻¹). Rainfall exhibited high inter-annual variability (CV = 25.74%) with
positive skewness, indicating elevated risk for rainfed kharif rice
establishment. The asymmetric warming pattern — rising night temperatures with
narrowing diurnal range rather than hotter days — has direct implications for
respiration losses, grain-filling duration, and sucrose accumulation in
sugarcane. These findings suggest the need for agronomic adaptation strategies
including advancement of wheat sowing windows, adoption of heat-tolerant
varieties, and refined nitrogen management under a changing climate in the
Indo-Gangetic Plain.
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Pages:73-77
How to cite this article:
Vinod Kumar, Vachin Kumar, Permod Kumar, Shweta Tyagi "Trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperature and rainfall variability at Lucknow (U.P) (1979-2016) using non-parametric tests". International Journal of Botany Studies, Vol 10, Issue 9, 2025, Pages 73-77
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